June 21

4:00 PM - 5:45 PM

2.A.03

Cyrille Thiébaut

Abstract: The minimalist paradigm, which dominated opinion research for decades after World War II, suggests that public opinion on foreign and defence issues is volatile, mostly incoherent and poorly structured. Lacking both interest in politics and knowledge about it, people are thought to answer au hasard when interviewed. Recent studies have challenged this paradigm and demonstrated that, despite citizens’ lack of information, the public is more rational than previously thought. However, this is better documented for the American public than for the European one, where the minimalist view remains quite strong. This is even truer for European defence, an issue considered especially remote from people's daily preoccupations. Based on an original measure of European defence Mood (1990-2008), this paper contributes to the debate on (non)rational public opinion towards foreign and strategic matters using France as a case-study. Indeed, in France, foreign and defence policies are the "domaine réservé" of the President of the Republic, that leaves little space for debate. Furthermore, since Mitterrand's presidency, there is a left/right consensus that makes defence issues even less debated nor contentious. Therefore, one should expect French public to be particularly likely to answer randomly to questions about European defence. However, based on the mood measure, I show that French support for European defence is not random and people are able to connect the dots. Indeed, the public responds to international events and the support is correlated with attitudes towards the transatlantic relationship.

Disciplines: Political Science
Media Studies

Substantive Tags: Foreign Policy/Relations, European Union and Integration, Political Communication

Research Networks: None of the Above

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